BP’s Investor Update flags risk to net zero

Despite the recent resignations of its CEO and Head of US, BP has said it remains committed to its strategy, financial frame and net zero ambition in its 2023 investor update, with no change to its fuel and emissions targets. However, new data on its long-term oil & gas portfolio casts doubt on BP's absolute emissions targets.

BP has provided information on oil and gas capacity into the 2040s, raising questions about what transition looks like. 

The company has ~18bn boe of resources planned to be online by 2040, which BP says will provide over 20 years of production capacity at FY22 rates.

With production targets of 2.3 mboe/d by FY25 and 2.0 mboe/d by FY30, BP would still produce until ~FY46 if it maintained FY30 levels. This does not include any additional growth developments before the end of their planned pipeline of resources. 

A strong oil and gas portfolio may put BP’s emissions targets at risk.

BP aims to reach net-zero by 2050 or sooner for its operational scope 1&2 emissions and upstream scope 3 emissions. 

To maintain production from its planned resources, BP requires ongoing investment in oil and gas beyond FY40. Additionally, without drastic and sudden production decline through divestments or decommissioning, or major progress and implementation of abatement measures, the feasibility of BP’s absolute emission reduction targets may be at risk.