Looking ahead for 2025: Climate plans to transform in the Year of the Wood Snake.
Key takeaways
Accela expects 2025 to deliver on the Wood Snake’s promise of transformation.
Oil and gas majors will likely continue prioritising distributions over decarbonisation, and the Trump administration will drive efforts to reverse recent climate progress.
But there are reasons for optimism. Oil and gas companies will be revisiting their climate targets, opening the opportunity for new approaches if investors can seize the moment. Meanwhile, the global energy transition surges forward, supported by declining renewable costs and new regulations.
Author: Shu Ling Liauw, CEO and Co-founder at Accela Research.
2025 is the Year of the Wood Snake that promises prosperity and transformation. But like all zodiac symbols, it has both positive and negative interpretations. Snakes can represent good fortune but also danger. So, the future is invariably uncertain and Accela believes that this mid-decade year will be complex and volatile as geopolitical realities and economic priorities shift.
The oil and gas majors are currently prioritising distributions over decarbonisation efforts in response to pressure from investors. Accela foresees this continuing, with multiple majors likely to miss or push back their 2025 interim emissions targets. There’s a danger, too, that they could dilute their future ambitions (e.g. 2030 targets) and focus instead on expanding fossil-fuel production.
Then there are President Donald Trump’s plans to reverse climate progress, including his goal to dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act. They threaten to obstruct America’s low-carbon sector, specifically offshore wind and hydrogen, with potential chilling effects for these technologies beyond the United States.
The Year of the Snake could, however, be full of new opportunities and Accela’s analysis has identified reasons for optimism.
Yes, it will be a backwards step when oil and gas majors inevitably reevaluate their emissions targets. But rebasing can open up the possibility of a different approach. The first half of the decade saw companies setting targets that lacked sufficient underlying strategies. Shareholders have an opportunity this year to pressure companies to develop and deliver strategies that will have tangible emissions outcomes and ensure profitability when oil and gas prices drop.
And even if the second Trump administration tries to put America’s energy transition into reverse, the global transformation is forging ahead through the actions of other countries, US state governments, responsible companies, civil-society groups, and individuals. Remember, renewable technology costs are continuing to fall and climate-friendly projects are rolling out at unprecedented rates. This year we’ll see the impact of regulatory requirements in the European Union (EU), one of the world’s biggest economies. In 2025, the first companies are due to publish their performance under the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive. Australia will also see its first mandatory climate-related financial disclosures published.
Key milestones are also approaching. Under the Paris Agreement framework, February 2025 is the deadline for countries to submit their new climate action plans (called Nationally Determined Contributions). Further ahead, COP30 - most likely the biggest climate event of the year - is scheduled for November in Belém, Brazil. It will mark a decade since governments signed the landmark Paris accord, with a pledge to try to stop global temperatures rising by more than 1.5C.
For many, the snake is a symbol of good luck and happiness but when it comes to our climate its powers of transformation are needed like never before. 