Key findings

• Oil production grew by 2.1% in FY23 (2.08 Mboe/d), exceeding guidance of 1.5%. Production is expected to be stable in FY24, with 5% growth expected to FY26 (2.19 Mboe/d), before maintaining at 2 Mboe/d by FY30. Equinor previously indicated it would maintain FY22 production levels (2 Mboe/d) to FY30. 

• The company provided FY35 targets of >65 TWh of renewable power generation and 15-40 TWh of “decarbonised energy” (hydrogen, ammonia and gas power with CCS), and increased its target for CCS transport and storage capacity to 30-50 Mtpa by FY35 (previously 15-30 Mtpa).

• Based on new guidance, we forecast a minimal shift in Equinor’s production by FY35 which is expected to be 94% oil and gas (from 99.6% in FY23), with renewables 5%, and ~1% from other hydrogen/gas + CCS (on a physical energy content basis, assuming 2 Mboe/d production in FY35).

• Renewables & Low carbon solutions “gross capex” was reported as 20% of group in FY23, no values are provided, and numbers do not reconcile to capital expenditure included in Equinor’s results, making it difficult to assess progress against its FY30 target (50% of gross capex).