Key findings

01

Eni's FY23 capex was up 14% to €9.2bn, finishing below guidance of €9.5bn, and indicating <€9bn for FY24. The results may signal risk to its €6.5bn (20% of group) cumulative ‘Green value chain’ capex for FY23-26. As a percentage of group, FY23 capex was 7% for Plenitude, 9% for Refining + Enilive, therefore at most FY23 Green value chain capex was ~16% (ex acquisitions).

02

The company has three key levers to meet its target of a 50% reduction in net carbon intensity by FY40 and a 35% reduction in scope 1,2, and 3 by FY30: 1) Plenitude (gas and power sales, including renewables and EVs), 2) Enilive (bioenergy, convenience & mobility), and 3) reweighting production to 60% gas by FY30. We see mixed progress across Plenitude and the reweighting to gas production, with more progress on bioenergy.

03

Plenitude is profitable with FY23 profit €515m up 49%, however, its FY23 sales are heavily weighted to pipeline gas, ~79%. Biorefining capacity is now 3% of total refining (up from 2% in FY22) vs TotalEnergies est. <1%.

04

Eni has said it will continue to divest non-core fossil fuel assets, but as we saw in our note, ‘M&A and the oil and gas endgame’, it has also focused on acquisitions, the largest being Neptune Energy in FY23 ($4.3bn, majority gas) and also in Indonesia the acquisition of assets from Chevron. Eni’s portfolio has increased marginally towards gas, 54%.