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3Q24 results highlight the dual narrative in TotalEnergies’ strategy: building a peer-leading renewables and power business in both scale and profitability, while also securing the top position in upstream and LNG growth ambition.

Our view

Despite a 4% drop from 3Q23, the Integrated Power segment remained profitable, with adjusted net operating income of $485m. The company’s gross renewables pipeline reached 89.6 GW, up 11% from 3Q23, making it ~70% larger than BP’s (53 GW) and nearly double Shell’s (45 GW).

At the same time, TotalEnergies reported multiple upstream start-ups in 3Q24, adding a combined gross peak production capacity of ~275 kboe/d and securing 2.55 Mtpa in long-term LNG sales contracts starting FY27. Following its 2024 Strategy & Outlook day, TotalEnergies now holds the most ambitious oil and gas growth target among peers, raising its goal from 13% to 20% by FY30, while continuing to lead in LNG sales growth (+50% from FY23-30).

Priority questions ahead of 2025: 

1) Quantification of levers to achieve net carbon intensity (NCI) targets: 

• Can TotalEnergies ensure its aggressive LNG growth won’t lock in long-term fossil fuel dependence? With plans to grow LNG sales by 50% by FY30, the most among Euromajors, LNG is framed as a decarbonisation lever, but its potential is limited to the near-term. Clarity is needed on how these investments align with long-term decarbonisation. 

2) Increases in low-carbon investment: Will TotalEnergies commit to quarterly reporting for its Low-carbon molecules business?

• Regular disclosures are required to track progress toward TotalEnergies’ target of allocating 33% of group capex to Low-carbon energies.

Key findings